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处于十字路口的越南：美国和中国关税对制造业和贸易的影响

随着美国及其全球伙伴间的贸易紧张局势因新关税升级，越南发现自己处于一个既显脆弱、又具独特优势的双重境地，正面临着把握新机遇的挑战。 新加坡 ISEAS-Yusof Ishak 研究所访问高级研究员、资深贸易经济学家 Jayant Menon 博士在近期一次网络直播中，深入剖析了这一复杂局面。他重点探讨了这些政策对越南乃至整个东南亚的影响，并将分析置于持续的美中贸易战这一更广阔的背景之下。

解码 BAD 关税

美国新推行的关税政策本质并非“互惠关税”，而更接近一种针对双边调整后赤字（BAD）的惩罚性机制。其计算逻辑存在显著漏洞：忽视服务贸易、强制设定最低门槛，且彻底背离互惠原则。 这种设计对越南等巨额贸易顺差国构成精准打击——以越南为例，其超1200亿美元顺差在BAD关税框架下直接触发高达46%的税率。

越南喜忧参半

虽然这些发展带来了明显的挑战，但它们也提供了战略机遇。越南已成为美中贸易战的主要受益者，吸引了希望将制造业从中国转移出去的公司的外国直接投资。其全面的贸易协定，包括《全面与进步跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》（“CPTPP”）和《欧盟-越南自由贸易协定》（“EVFTA”），使其能够优先进入主要市场。

然而，这种优势可能会被稀释，这取决于正在进行的谈判的结果。如果美国和中国达成妥协，或者如果美国降低对中国的关税，而对越南商品的关税仍然相对较高，那么流入越南的投资可能会放缓。美国和中国关税讨论的结果对于确定该地区的竞争力和供应链转移至关重要。

危机中的改革机遇

超越贸易层面，梅农博士更指出了深层机遇：目前的形势可能会成为越南早就应该进行的国内改革的催化剂。这些措施包括放宽外资所有权限制、解决许可和补贴问题以及减少国有企业的影响力。随着越南寻求向价值链上游移动并吸引高质量投资，解决这些非关税壁垒变得越来越重要。

全球影响和美国贸易可靠性

美国关税决策的剧烈波动正构成系统性风险源：从豁免清单的频繁变更到税率的突发性调整，这种政策不可预测性不仅抑制长期资本投入，更迫使跨国企业重构全球贸易布局。

梅农博士进一步剖解贸易逆差本质：美国赤字根源在于国内经济结构失衡——特别是储蓄率低迷与消费扩张的固有矛盾。关税工具仅能实现逆差的跨国再分配，却无法化解其内生性困境，这已被“双赤字理论”所实证。

前方的道路

随着谈判的展开，越南的道路将不仅取决于对外贸易政策，还取决于其内部如何应对。它会利用这场危机来推动经济改革并实现贸易框架的现代化吗？还是不确定性和保护主义会削弱其增长轨迹？

有一点是明确的：越南不再是全球贸易的被动参与者，而是一个关键参与者，在地缘政治压力、经济机会和美越南贸易紧张局势的变化动态之间游刃有余。

 

关于 Jayant Menon 博士

Jayant Menon 博士是新加坡 ISEAS-Yusof Ishak 研究所的访问高级研究员，也是亚洲开发银行的前首席经济学家。作为贸易和投资专家，他撰写了大量出版物并为亚洲各国政府提供咨询，包括为柬埔寨的 2030 年愿景战略做出贡献。

本文改编自 2025 年 5 月 23 日举办的 GLG 免费网络直播“处于十字路口的越南：驾驭美国关税的影响”。观看完整的网络直播重播，听听 Menon 博士用他自己的话表达自己的见解。如果您想与 Menon 博士等专家交谈，请点击此处联系我们。

 

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Hilary Malone PhD, has over 25 years of experience in global drug development, regulatory &government affairs, manufacturing and commercialization within the biopharma industry. Hilary hassignificant board level and executive committee experience including large scale organizationalrestructuring/transformation/integration, major M&A, biotech start-up, capital raising, investorrelations and pre-IPO.​

Hilary is currently CEO of Stylus Medicine, a private genetic medicine biotech company. Previously sheserved as CEO of a Series-A neuroscience company. Prior to these roles, Hilary served as COO & EVP atValo Health Inc., Chief Regulatory Officer & SVP at Sanofi Inc., and Chief Regulatory Officer & SVP atPfizer and Wyeth. Previous experience also includes senior regulatory and drug development roles atReata Pharmaceuticals Inc., AstraZeneca plc and GlaxoSmithKline plc.​

Hilary also serves on the Board of Directors of Hansa Biopharma and Adthera Bio. Hilary holds a PhD inMolecular Neuropharmacology and a BSc in Physiology.

Dr. Thomas Lönngren is Director at his own company PharmaExec Consulting AB. He is the Chairman of the Board of directors at Egetis Therapeutics AB, Sweden. Dr Lönngren also serves as board member at Compass Pathways PLC, London UK and NDA Group, Sweden. He acts as advisor to the following companies and organizations: NDA group, Sweden, Sweden, Artis Venture, San Francisco, US, Fujimoto Japan, Skin2Neuron Pty Ltd, Sydney, Australia, US, Special advisor to the Centre for Innovation in Regulatory Science (CIRS), London UK. From 2001 until2011, Mr.Lönngren served as the Executive Director of the European Medical Agency. He was previously Deputy General Director of the Swedish Medical Product Agency until 2000. He has a degree in pharmacy and MSc in Social and Regulatory Pharmacy from Uppsala University. He is also an Honorary Member of the Royal Pharmaceutical Society of Great Britain, Honorary Fellow of the Royal College of Physicians in Great Britain, Honorary Doctorate from the University of Uppsala, Honorary Doctorate from University of Bath, UK.

Speaker Biographies

Marie-Anne Aymerich

Marie-Anne has built a portfolio of senior advisory and non-executive roles, following a successful international career in the FMCG and Luxury sectors. She is a non-executive director of Haleon, a FTSE100 company listed in 2022 after the demerger from GSK. She is also chairwoman of Haleon Environment and Societal Sustainability committee. She is the executive director of the Pierre Fabre Group where she also sits on the Strategic Committee, and she is a Board Member of The Academy of St. Martin-in-the-Fields, one of the world’s most prestigious chamber orchestras. She is also an angel investor and focuses her time and investments on start-ups with the strongest purpose and impact.

Marie-Anne is also a regular lecturer at HEC Paris on purposeful leadership, and she has created a serious game called “Planet Purpose” to upskill people on sustainability and purpose. Throughout her 35year executive career she delivered a strong track-record of business performance and growth in brands and portfolio in both developed and emerging economies.

As a senior leader with Unilever, she led a number of different personal care categories across France, Spain and the USA – including managing the Dove brand worldwide and culminating in leading Unilever’s global Oral Care division. She also worked for LVMH as Brand General Manager of Dior Perfumes and Cosmetics worldwide. Marie-Anne was also Vice-President of Imagine for Margo – Children with Cancer for ten years, a charity she helped found in 2011 with the goal of eradicating children’s cancer. The charity is the #1 charity focused on child cancer in France and has fundraised more than €14m since its creation. Marie-Anne is a graduate from HEC Paris. She is married and has two children aged 29 and 26.

Patrick Jephson

Patrick Jephson is a consultant, journalist, broadcaster and New York Times bestselling author, based in Washington D.C. He is a published authority on corporate and personal branding and crisis communications, addressing conferences worldwide as well as events at the U.S. State Department, the American University and the Annenberg School for Communication and Journalism.

With more than twenty-five years’ experience in the government, luxury and family office sectors, Patrick’s portfolio has included globally admired brands as well as national agencies and NGOs. He has also worked on reputation and legacy briefs with European, Middle Eastern and Asian families, including royalty. He now writes, presents, and advises on factual and drama TV programs, appearing on every major American and many international networks. He was recently an expert consultant to the award-winning Netflix series The Crown and provided live commentary on the Coronation of King Charles.

Patrick owes much of his practical communications and protocol experience to Princess Diana, who chose him to be her equerry and only private secretary/chief of staff. He served the Princess for eight years, responsible for all aspects of her public life, global humanitarian initiatives, and private organization. Having worked for an internationally high-profile woman (and as the father of two professionally successful daughters) he feels a special affinity for cross-cultural, gender and perception issues.

Patrick was born and raised in Ireland and holds a master’s degree in political science from Cambridge University. As an officer in the British Royal Navy, he served all over the world before being selected for royal duty. He is a citizen of the U.K., U.S.A., Ireland, and Canada.