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中国酒店业展望：疫情下的求变之路

GLG 专家团成员，中国洛桑酒店管理有限公司董事长兼CEO 薛霆

自新冠疫情发生以来，全球酒店业都面临着前所未有的生存问题。由于中国的常态化防控措施，该行业在未来的发展形势仍未完全明朗。酒店业近期的市场表现如何？疫情之下，要怎样自救与转型？其未来的发展趋势如何？针对这些主题，GLG 格理集团邀请专家团成员，中国洛桑酒店管理有限公司董事长兼CEO薛霆先生，解析与展望疫情下的中国酒店市场。以下为活动摘要。

Q1：今年上半年，酒店业的市场表现如何？

薛霆：总体来看，2022 年上半年的业务比 2021 年下半年回升了 50% 左右，但还没达到 2019 年上半年的水平。国际游或国际到中国的入境游，基本全部熔断，这促使了原本更喜欢境外游的游客回到了国内，反而推动了国内酒店旅游的回暖与设施建设。从地域看，华南、西南表现突出；西北相对较好；东北和华北则非常低迷。从国内酒店客人的到访率来看，最高的是华东地区，其次是华南，最糟糕的是内蒙、辽宁和黑龙江，因受到了疫情反复的影响。国际联号酒店的发展不算顺利，疫情三年来，开业酒店与签约酒店的数量都受到了打击。2019 年大概有 700-800 家酒店在签约，到 2022 年已经降到了 500 多家。不过，奢华品牌在今年受到了重视，其布局大幅提高，比如阳朔悦榕庄、青城山六善等，均发展强劲。因为原来出国旅游的那批客户，由于无法出国旅行因此选在国内环境好、配套好、品牌好的超高档产品，从而拉动了一线和强二线城市的奢华酒店建设。而原本推动整个签约量的主力军——中档酒店和经济型酒店，则由于各种转型和退租或租金较10年前涨高等问题，市场签约率越来越低。

Q2：目前，国内酒店玩家的现状如何？

薛霆：国内的主要玩家有几种不同的运营模式。有的会积极跟国际著名酒店连锁品牌或公寓连锁品牌进行合作、合资，甚至是持有控股，希望通过品牌效应，引入先进管理理念，提升自身竞争力；有的会通过与影城、旅游集团及网红项目整合，打造文旅项目，带动酒店的经营发展——这些举措往往都伴随着与大房企的合作。另外就是 OYO、Airbnb 这种，或受制于国家法律法规、特种行业规定的要求，这些玩家不太适应国内中低端市场的合作环境，应该会逐步淡出，偃旗息鼓。说实话，我并不看好酒店与房企之间在国内的关系。中国的房企以快速周转的模式运行，而酒店是投资密集型、人员密集型和投资回报缓慢型的行业。这种差异决定了中国房企不可能有长期在酒店经营上精耕细作的打算。中国房企做酒店项目时，本身并不是要把市场接待力和服务品质提高，而是想通过品牌合作提升资产估值和更大的利用金融杠杆，提升其房地产板块项目的知名度或增值空间。

Q3：面对疫情挑战，酒店业该如何应对？

薛霆：我认为酒店可通过以下几点来自救，仅供参考：

  • 重点关注酒店周边的公司协议价——眼光不要放太远，不要老想跟旅行社绑定，周边的公司就可以决定酒店的供给量和需求量。多关注与商业公司或制造企业的协议价，将跨省的旅行经纪业务收回来，从而降低疫情可能造成的影响。
  • 长短租产品结合，以优惠价与公寓争夺市场——酒店是非常典型的短租型产品行业，而通过长租房、长包房和公司协议用房，可尽量弥补一些经营损失。
  • 控制人力和能耗成本——酒店业内，单店的人力加上能耗，基本占了 40% – 45% 左右的成本，可封闭公共区域、关闭多余餐厅、封掉用不上的楼层和项目，从而有效减少这些成本。如果裁员后又突然有了生意，则可利用劳务外包合同，补充基础岗位的人力。

Q4：2022下半年，酒店业将如何发展？

薛霆：下半年的情况应该相对乐观。7 月进入暑期旺季后，尽管速度比较慢，国内酒店和旅游业都在逐渐回升。不管是德尔塔还是猴痘病毒，在中国也得到了相对较好的控制。同时，政府在积极推进文旅发展，其设施配套项目的招标、采购越来越多。另外，国家也想利用大交通拉动经济，如国内航线的开放，油价的调控、燃油税、燃油附加费、过路费的下调，都是为了降低出行成本。

从地区上看，华南地区景气指数的提升非常明显，除三亚外，其酒店入住率和机票预订量会高速增长。以上海为主的华东地区，相对不会有太大变化，长三角、华东城市的人口密集度太大，会得到比较严峻的疫情管控。以北京为主的华北地区，其旅游意愿和酒店预订应该比 2021 年下半年有所提升，虽说不如华南和西南，但由于冬奥会修建了很多国际赛事设施，疫情放松后会有相对回暖的迹象。至于东北地区，因为经济薄弱、交通配套差、酒店与景区的管理粗放，不太会成为旅游客源的目的地。西北地区作为旅游经济带，未来发展是乐观的，但其酒店管理和服务水准也相对落后。不过，对未来酒店的品牌发展和服务提升来讲，东北和西北市场具有更大拉升空间，这一点值得被看好。

关于作者
薛霆先生，自 2015 年 4 月起，于香港创办中国洛桑酒店管理有限公司，并亲自担任 CEO。该公司主要提供第三方酒店服务及管理、度假服务及管理、国际酒店连锁开发及管理合作，酒店设计及工程机电顾问等业务。他本人酒店从业超过28年，与万豪、洲际、雅高、温德姆等著名国际连锁酒店集团有着超过20余个项目的合作。2015 年 4 月前，他曾担任佳兆业集团（港交所01638）酒店管理公司高管，负责对接万豪、雅高等国际连锁酒店集团合作和佳兆业集团自身酒店连锁体系的投资和管理，在酒店投资与加盟等领域具有深刻见解。

GLG格理集团致力于打造全球知识平台，为需要专业洞见的商业决策者匹配具有一手经验的行业专家，助力他们以更加明确的目标和坚定的信心做出决策。本文作者曾参与GLG格理集团关于“‘中国酒店市场”的洞见访谈。如果您想与包括薛霆在内的GLG专家库约100万专家中的任何一位交谈，请与我们联系。
*以上分析仅代表专家个人观点，格理集团不予置评或背书，并不负责文章中所涉观点的真实性、关联性或完整性。

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Hilary Malone PhD, has over 25 years of experience in global drug development, regulatory &government affairs, manufacturing and commercialization within the biopharma industry. Hilary hassignificant board level and executive committee experience including large scale organizationalrestructuring/transformation/integration, major M&A, biotech start-up, capital raising, investorrelations and pre-IPO.​

Hilary is currently CEO of Stylus Medicine, a private genetic medicine biotech company. Previously sheserved as CEO of a Series-A neuroscience company. Prior to these roles, Hilary served as COO & EVP atValo Health Inc., Chief Regulatory Officer & SVP at Sanofi Inc., and Chief Regulatory Officer & SVP atPfizer and Wyeth. Previous experience also includes senior regulatory and drug development roles atReata Pharmaceuticals Inc., AstraZeneca plc and GlaxoSmithKline plc.​

Hilary also serves on the Board of Directors of Hansa Biopharma and Adthera Bio. Hilary holds a PhD inMolecular Neuropharmacology and a BSc in Physiology.

Dr. Thomas Lönngren is Director at his own company PharmaExec Consulting AB. He is the Chairman of the Board of directors at Egetis Therapeutics AB, Sweden. Dr Lönngren also serves as board member at Compass Pathways PLC, London UK and NDA Group, Sweden. He acts as advisor to the following companies and organizations: NDA group, Sweden, Sweden, Artis Venture, San Francisco, US, Fujimoto Japan, Skin2Neuron Pty Ltd, Sydney, Australia, US, Special advisor to the Centre for Innovation in Regulatory Science (CIRS), London UK. From 2001 until2011, Mr.Lönngren served as the Executive Director of the European Medical Agency. He was previously Deputy General Director of the Swedish Medical Product Agency until 2000. He has a degree in pharmacy and MSc in Social and Regulatory Pharmacy from Uppsala University. He is also an Honorary Member of the Royal Pharmaceutical Society of Great Britain, Honorary Fellow of the Royal College of Physicians in Great Britain, Honorary Doctorate from the University of Uppsala, Honorary Doctorate from University of Bath, UK.

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Marie-Anne Aymerich

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As a senior leader with Unilever, she led a number of different personal care categories across France, Spain and the USA – including managing the Dove brand worldwide and culminating in leading Unilever’s global Oral Care division. She also worked for LVMH as Brand General Manager of Dior Perfumes and Cosmetics worldwide. Marie-Anne was also Vice-President of Imagine for Margo – Children with Cancer for ten years, a charity she helped found in 2011 with the goal of eradicating children’s cancer. The charity is the #1 charity focused on child cancer in France and has fundraised more than €14m since its creation. Marie-Anne is a graduate from HEC Paris. She is married and has two children aged 29 and 26.

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Patrick Jephson is a consultant, journalist, broadcaster and New York Times bestselling author, based in Washington D.C. He is a published authority on corporate and personal branding and crisis communications, addressing conferences worldwide as well as events at the U.S. State Department, the American University and the Annenberg School for Communication and Journalism.

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Patrick owes much of his practical communications and protocol experience to Princess Diana, who chose him to be her equerry and only private secretary/chief of staff. He served the Princess for eight years, responsible for all aspects of her public life, global humanitarian initiatives, and private organization. Having worked for an internationally high-profile woman (and as the father of two professionally successful daughters) he feels a special affinity for cross-cultural, gender and perception issues.

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