GLG Network Survey: Geopolitics

SURVEY DETAILS

TARGET POPULATION

GLG interviewed 45 geopolitical advisors and academia professionals.

What will you learn from this survey?

• Geopolitical advisors and academia professionals discussed the latest geopolitical issues in the world, assessing regional and national military conflicts and their impact on the economy.
• The survey also looked at the impact that the UK’s withdrawal from the EU will have on the European economy over the next 12 months.
•  Lastly, respondents provided their views on global appetite for great power activism and their projections on which countries will struggle most to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic.

Examples of findings:

• 60% of the respondents believe it is unlikely that the global economy will recover in the next 12 months from the impact of COVID-19.
• Most experts (80%) assessed the impact of UK’s withdrawal from the EU on the European economy over the next 12 months to be moderately low.
• A third of the respondents believe Brazil will struggle most to recover both economically and politically from COVID-19.

DELIVERABLES

The GLG Surveys team drafted the questionnaire with the support of GLG Network Member Kenneth Pollack, Resident Scholar of the American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research.

The standard deliverable includes:

• 1 x Individual responses (“raw data”), in Excel.
• 1 x PPT report with aggregated data.
• A further executive summary of survey findings presented by the Network Member will be made available after the webcast (optional).

SAMPLE QUESTIONS

• On a scale of 1 (very unlikely) to 5 (very likely) do you believe that the global economy will return to pre-pandemic levels of economic activity in the next 12 months?
• From the following list of potential issues, which 5 do you believe have the greatest potential to create geopolitical problems over the next 6-12 months?
• From the following list, please identify 5 personalities whose sudden removal from office – by any cause – would have the greatest potential for geopolitical instability (or geoeconomics disruption).
• What is your view of the global appetite for great power activism?  For each of the following countries, please rate on a scale of 1 (strongly dislike) to 5 (strongly like) your perception of international interest in seeing that country play a major role in world affairs.
• If the United States moves to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership, how much do you believe this will complicate U.S.-China relation on a scale of 1 (will not complicate the relationship) to 5 (will create severe problems)?
• How do you rate the likelihood that Russia would intervene militarily or escalate its current level of intervention during the next 12 months in each of the following countries?
• How do you rate the likelihood that the United States and Iran will both return to full compliance with the JCPOA in the next 6 months?
• Do you believe that Angela Merkel’s decision to step down as Chancellor of Germany will significantly affect the European Union politically and/or economically?
• How likely is that the Yemeni civil war will trigger a wider conflict in the Arabian Peninsula or Red Sea?

ACCESS

This survey is available to subscribers of the Legal, Economic, Regulatory Affairs (LERA) sector (Limited subscriptions and above). This offer includes the raw data file and a high-level presentation through PowerPoint. Please contact your GLG representative for details on your firm’s access.

Request other available and upcoming Network Surveys within the sector:

Legal, Economic, Regulatory Affairs (LERA)

• Brexit Overview New!
  • 80 CEOs of large companies across UK discussed Brexit’s impact on industries. The survey looked at steps the companies have already taken, and the outlook for the future. It also asked experts to assess the impact they believe the deal will have on the economy going forward.
  • Questionnaire was drafted by Jonathan Portes, Professor of Economics and Public Policy at King’s College London.

DISCLAIMER:

Please be advised that GLG Network Surveys operate differently than traditional GLG consultations, surveys, teleconferences, etc. and it is advisable that you consult with your firm’s legal and/or compliance department to review your use of the product and the payment for such work under your current subscription.

By downloading this document and/or participating in the Network Survey, you understand and agree that the information and material provided by GLG, including survey results and survey proposal information, is provided for your own insight and informational purposes only. You further acknowledge and agree that this is a Network Survey for multiple GLG clients, and the results will be provided to all GLG clients that agree to participate in the Network Survey and GLG clients that agree to purchase the Survey results in the future. All survey results do not constitute investment advice or a recommendation. In using this Survey, you agree to hold Gerson Lehrman Group and the Survey respondents harmless and free of all liability as a result of your use of this Network Survey, other than liability resulting from the gross negligence or wilful misconduct of the protected party. You otherwise agree to be bound by Gerson Lehrman Group’s Usage Policies in your interactions with Gerson Lehrman Group and your receipt of services. These Survey results are for are for client’s own use and client shall not redistribute, disseminate, publish, or display the same, in whole or in part, to any third parties or publicly without the prior written permission of Gerson Lehrman Group, except explicitly set forth in your agreement with GLG. This survey will be double-blinded to both client and respondent. GLG reserves the right to restrict the number of clients that can pre-commit access. These Network Surveys are priced outside of standard GLG subscriptions but at a substantially reduced price to commissioning a fully proprietary GLG Network Survey. Upon finding these terms acceptable, please send an affirmative confirmation via email, which GLG will file in its records. Once confirmed, please note that the Client’s agreement to purchase the Network Survey is a legally binding and irrevocable commitment. If the survey is not included within your subscription, GLG will invoice Client for the fees due for the Network Survey. Please note that some respondents may not be Network Members, and the Terms and Conditions of Network Membership would not apply to such respondents and detailed records for them will not be available aside from the information that GLG capture in the Network Survey.